Designing and Validating an Agent-based Commodity Trading Simulation∗

In this paper, an agent-based commodity trading simulation platform is presented, with focus on simulation design and validation. We propose a novel combination of event-based approach and event study method for market dynamics generation and validation. In our event-based approach, the simulation is progressed by announcing news events that affect various aspects of the commodity supply chain. Upon receiving these events, market agents that play different roles, e.g., producers, consumers, and speculators, would adjust their views on the market and act accordingly. Their actions would be based on their roles and also their private information, and collectively the market dynamics will be shaped. The generated market dynamics can then be validated by a variant of the event study method. We demonstrate how the methodology works with several numerical experiments and conclude by highlighting the practical significance of such simulation platform.